Wither SSM
KMG does an interesting job interpreting Bouquets of Gray’s analysis of the electoral fortunes of pro and anti SSM candidates. It turns out that those fortunes were, more or less a wash with pro and anti being re-elected in much the same numbers.
Grace’s conclusion is:
If Canadians were so hell bent on punishing those known (or suspected) to harbour retrograde notions on the dignity of gay nuptials, they would have rejected Conservative MPs en masse. And they would have rejected the Liberal holdouts in favour of the only party in Canada with a monolithic position on SSM (pro): the NDP. That didn’t happen either.
kmg
My own analysis is that it would have been somewhat surprising to see candidates winning or losing on the SSM issue in most of the ridings in Canada. However, the shutout experienced by the CPC in the three largest metropolitan areas in Canada may have had a little something to do with both the issue in itself and, perhaps more to the point, the issue as a symbol of a general uneasiness with socon positions.
At this point Harper has to pray that the current Parliament in a free vote rejects any revision of the current SSM regime in Canada. The alternative, where Parliament, likely by a very slim margin, votes to affirm “the traditional definition of marriage” will plunge the CPC into a legal battle and political which it neither needs nor is likely to win without invoking the not withstanding clause. A battle in which, God Help Us, the Senate of Canada might well wake up and decide to defend SSM in the face of the CPC government. And there goes the chance of a CPC majority next go round.
If I were a Liberal strategist I might well be looking for ways to ensure that anti-SSM legislation did, in fact, pass in the Commons. Put that particular cat among the carefully lined up CPC pidgeons and see Tory feathers fly.
Written by jay on January 27th, 2006 with
1 comment.
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#1. January 29th, 2006, at 3:18 AM.
“If I were a Liberal strategist I might well be looking for ways to ensure that anti-SSM legislation did, in fact, pass in the Commons. Put that particular cat among the carefully lined up CPC pidgeons and see Tory feathers fly.”
It’s difficult to see how that could be done successfully. But just to play along, how about something like this. The Liberals find some rationale to boycott the vote–’the last vote was fair and sufficient, no need to participate in this rridiculous chirade’. This would mean that the vote would be quite close (my guess is that without the Liberals there are 100ish votes for rescinding and 90ish against.)
But, coming back to reality, that would be too cynical for even the Liberals to get away with.