Jay Currie

The Tories, for their part, have also moved left, which is to say into the centre. Sensing an opportunity to make the Conservatives the new “natural governing party,” Mr. Harper has pushed through the most extraordinary series of reversals: whether of policies his government had just adopted (the ill-fated Clean Air Act), or of promises on which they campaigned a year ago (income trusts), or in some cases of the beliefs of a lifetime. But again, they overdid it, alienating their own base even as they were confusing other potential voters. Tory partisans have been left reassuring themselves of the very thing they most hotly deny to others: Don’t worry, there’s a hidden agenda. andrew coyne, national post

As we enter what may very well be our Summer of Discontent, Canadians are united in their disappointment with the federal parties. This much Coyne gets right. But he cites a variety of issues – from leadership to specific policy positions.

I think he is wrong because the disappointment comes from a much deeper source: Canadians are smart enough to see pandering and lying for what they are. Sometimes – often on the national unity file – they will look the other way. But this time is different because the issue has become so universal.

A huge majority of Canadians believe in “man made” global warming. Why wouldn’t they? The mass media have reached consensus even if the scientists haven’t: Al Gore is right and we are all going to die. There are a few of us who see this as bunkum on a scientific or economic basis; but the vast majority are pretty much convinced. Which means they all have “views” on the subject and those views are powered by a cross between colossal ignorance, enormous certainty and – most importantly – fervent denial that they, personally, will have to do much beyond curbside recycling. Now, not surprisingly, this position is completely irrational and, worse, essentially impossible to satisfy, because it is based on a cascading series of fictions, emotions, misunderstood science and guilt.

What is happening politically is that each of the parties is, at the same time, trying to pander by demanding or promising solutions “right now” while promising that none of its programs will actually cause any pain for the average Canadian. Which even the dumbest voter realizes cannot possibly be true. So, on the top-of-the-mind issue of the day average Canadians know they are being lied to by every single one of the federal parties. And they are right because not one of those parties is willing to tell the truth for fear that that truth will be used by the other three parties to beat them to death.

Worse, the brighter lights in each of the parties – even the Greens – know that Kyoto is a joke and the science on global warming is becoming less catastrophic by the day. They know that Algore 20 foot sea level rise is directly contradicted by IPCC 4. They know that the degree of uncertainty in climate modeling makes most 50 year out predictions no better than a coin toss proposition. Which means they know they are lying and proposing policy on the basis of lies.

Whichever party breaks the convenient circle of lies is going to get hit hard for a few months while the rest of the world catches up. But the first mover is going to have the great advantage of being first off the bandwagon. They will be able to rally all those Canadians who don’t buy global warming as well as the Canadians whose faith is beginning to wane. The global warming hysteria, like most mob events, will diminish as quickly as it arose. The question is which of the political parties will have the wit to recognize that it’s over and that it is time to start telling Canadians the truth again.