Wasted votes

Greg Staples
#1. January 16th, 2006, at 8:34 PM.

I think you are bang on. I doubt a Conservative majority at 40%…and I doubt that 40% will materialize.

herringchoker
#2. January 16th, 2006, at 9:59 PM.

Over Christmas my brother, whose wife is from the Beauce, boldly declared that the Beauce was going Tory. He had been down there for the blessed day and was somewhat shocked to find that the Lberals are non-existent. The Beauce is an unabashedly federalist region and they have given up on the Grits. So that’s one. Louis-St.Laurent is two, largely for the same reason.

If the Tories get over 25% in Quebec they will start getting seats, but probably no more than a half-dozen. They do have a concentrated vote. Its outside of Montreal, strongest in QC and the south shore. Just like in Diefenbaker’s day.

herringchoker
#4. January 17th, 2006, at 2:11 AM.

Actually, I agree with both of you that 40% would mean a Conservative minority, but a very strong Conservative minority (145-150 seats). It would also mean that none of the other parties could reasonably think of trying to catch the Tories by bringing down the gov’t and running the board in the ensuing election. The Grits will, in all likelihood, be down in the 75-80 seat realm. This should sober whoever is leading the Grits from trying to reprise the Joe Clark experience when the Grits were only 22 seats behind the Tories. Also, I really don’t think Harper will govern in any way, shape or form similar to the way Joe did.

I spent the drive to work Friday counting the numbers, trying to determine if it was reasonable for the Tories to get 57 additional seats. It’s very hard. The math goes:

1. Gain two in Alberta, lose two in Saskatchewan.
2. Gain eight in Atl. Canada, gain six in Quebec, you’re still 39 seats short
3. Win sixty seats in Ontario (the blue belt from Ottawa to Essex County), watch the Dippers win the north and Grits keep Toronto. Result, 150 seats total.
4. BC: Win one, lose one. The Tories are already strong and I can’t see how they will win even one or two more (but I’m sure you can help Jay).

The result, 150 seats, almost completely unassailable. It means Harper can pretty much have his way on the majority of his platform, leaving the more controversial parts off the agenda if it would result in uniting the opposition. Just like Bill Davis in the late-70s. Of course, if the Grits collapse to Turner levels, well “Welcome Our Ant Overlords”. I await the queues at the airports as Judy Rebick and her crowd start filing refugee claims in Venezuela.

As for Quebec, I think you are wrong. The Tories are the party that can nail coffin shut on the Bloc, if they and the Liberals play it smart. But that’s one election away. The story in Quebec since 1980 has been about Quebecois rejecting the federal Liberals. Even JC at his Machiavellian best, polarizing the vote, could never achieved better than a draw. After establishing a beachhead in this election, the Tories can go loose in their regions of strength, that is, the regions beyond Montreal. Even if they can’t kill the Bloc, they can probably reduce it to Créditiste standards, say below 25 seats. That’s pretty much where it deserves to be as it pretty much represents the same constituency that Real Caouette did. It’s a two-stage process, three at the most.

As for the idea that Andre Boisclair is a danger to Canada. HAHAHAHA. A coke-snorting party boy leading a party that draws the bulk of its support from rural and small-town Quebec? I’m looking forward to watching Jean Charest and Super Mario eat his lunch in the next election. La pure laine may be very progressive, but even in the Saguenay they draw the line.

Cheers.

herringchoker
#5. January 17th, 2006, at 2:18 AM.

“2. Gain eight seats in Atl. Canada, gain six in Quebec, you’re still 39 seats short.”

OKOK. The abacus got stuck. You’re 41 sears short. I still win.

KevinG
#6. January 17th, 2006, at 3:45 AM.

“Here’s the thing, national polls are meaningless unless they can be mapped to at least the regional level.”

Exactly, well perhaps not meaningless but it certainly doesn’t have the meaning that most people ascribe to it.

Alan
#8. January 18th, 2006, at 2:28 AM.

Well, it all looks moot now as CPC support is collapsing given the national surge in wearing paper mustaches likened after Jack!