Tracking…
SES/CPAC is doing a nightly tracking poll. They did in the last election and it was certainly interesting if not a deadly accurate predictor.
As of December 2 the national numbers are: Libs 36, CPC 31, NDP 14, BQ 14, Greens 5.
SES breaks out the numbers regionally but with much greater uncertainty because of the smaller sample size.
Atlantic Libs 48, CPC 30, NDP 19
Quebec Libs 31, CPC 8, NDP 5, BQ 54
Ontario Libs 44, CPC 34, NDP 17
The West Libs 31, CPC 35, NDP 18
I entered James Bow’s election prediction contest with a seat breakdown of
CPC 50, BQ 70, NDP 40 and the Liberals 148
The basic premise of my analysis – other than the desire to go for an outlier prediction and win one of Sean’s very beautiful photographs – is that small shifts in popular vote in the right locations can shift a lot of seats quickly. The utility of a tracking poll at the national level is minimal; but at a regional level, despite the small sample sizes, overnights can show trends which actually translate into seats.
For example: if the BQ can bump its percentage in Quebec to 57 or 58 there is every chance that that shift will be coming from Liberal voters in currently Liberal seats. Similarily, if the Liberals maintain a 10 point lead in Ontario CPC marginal seats are going to be lost.
It’s too bad that SES has once again lumped BC in with the rest of the West because there are at least ten and maybe as many as fifteen BC seats which could change hands in this election. This tends to be obscured in the results from the West where the Alberta numbers for the CPC tend to drown out the more subtle shifts which may result in seat changes.
The one thing which is true about the national results is that the Liberal numbers are somewhat seat inefficient because of th number of Liberal votes which will not elect members in Quebec and the Tory numbers are also a bit misleading because there will be Conservatives elected in Alberta who will run up majorities four or five times larger than they need to win.
None of which is news but as I will be watching the SES polls it is worth reminding myself and my readers that they conceal as much as they disclose.