Jay Currie

No one wanted to acknowledge that, along with the Israeli wall there was an Egyptian wall keeping the Gazian Palestinians in. Yesterday the Egyptian wall was knocked down.

Good or bad news? Well, from an Egyptian perspective the wall was an embarrassment. But it served the purpose of ensuring that the poor wretches in Gaza were “someone else’s problem”. Now they are Egypt’s problem.

From the Israeli perspective the Egyptian wall was a sort of steel sieve which allowed all manner of weapons in but made very little difference politically or economically. If Israel is serious about disengaging from the Palestinians the end of the Egyptian wall may very well be a good thing. Now the Palis are Egypt’s problem not Israel’s.

The Palestinians themselves are much better off without the Egyptian wall. So long as the wall was there they were stuck with whichever gunmen happened to be in control. Now they have, briefly, the option of getting out of the self-made Hellhole of Gaza. Apparently a lot of them were taking their suitcases and running.

As to this being a Hamas triumph; does anyone really think the Israelis were surprised? The whole of Gaza has a low key but highly effective Israeli intelligence op going 24/7. Months of acetelyne torches? It is pretty much impossible that Israeli intelligence had no clue.

One way of looking at this is that Hamas has, essentially, invaded Egypt. 350,000 people – about 1/5 of the population of Gaza – has now gone shopping in the Sinai. The question is how many go home.

Historically, the Palis have been more of a problem for their Arab brothers than the Israelis. Jordan, Syria and Lebanon have all had to deal with Palestinian problems – sometimes brutally. Mubarak has to walk a very fine line between his Muslim Brotherhood opposition and the vexed issue of what to do about a land grab by an alien people.

The rockets keep flying and, no doubt, Israel will retaliate. But with this difference, so long as the Egyptian border remains open, Palestinians can vote with their feet. Given the horrible conditions in Gaza and the Hamas incapacity to do anything but make them worse, it would be a great surprise if half a million Palestinians decided to take a chance and get out from under.