Comments on: The Road to 50: Tracking and regional polls http://jaycurrie.info-syn.com/the-road-to-50-tracking-and-regional-polls/ One Damn Thing Leads to Another Sun, 23 Nov 2008 14:46:53 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5 By: herringchoker http://jaycurrie.info-syn.com/the-road-to-50-tracking-and-regional-polls/#comment-506 herringchoker Thu, 22 Dec 2005 17:20:15 +0000 http://jaycurrie.info-syn.com/?p=269#comment-506 Oops...should read "even in "his" half-assed manner". (Must edit properly!) Oops…should read “even in “his” half-assed manner”. (Must edit properly!)

]]> By: herringchoker http://jaycurrie.info-syn.com/the-road-to-50-tracking-and-regional-polls/#comment-505 herringchoker Thu, 22 Dec 2005 17:15:57 +0000 http://jaycurrie.info-syn.com/?p=269#comment-505 Hi Jay, I like looking at the SES regional numbers too, but I prefer to look at them over time. My favourite numbers are the Atlantic numbers. One day the Grits are ahead of the Tories by 25 points, the next day by 5 points. That's what happens when your nightly sample size is 40. The Grits have been the leaders in Atlantic opinion surveys since 1988, but it doesn't always play out in seat totals (although it did in 1993). The real question is what's happening on the ground? Which seats are the Grits going to take from the opposition on Jan 23rd? By all accounts, none. There is not one opposition seat east of Quebec City that is in any serious danger of falling to the Grits this time. (in 2004, only two incumbents lost their seats in Atl. Can. One Tory and one Tory turned Grit). In fact, down here the Grits are playing defence, trying to hang on to what they have now. If the national numbers have both big parties in the 30s on Election Day, I expect that the Grits will be five seats lighter down here (3 Tory, 2 NDP), if not more. I know you have a theory that SSM will work against the Tories, but it might help to look at which seats those 40 Liberal dissenters represented. For the most part they were from Atl Can and rural Ontario, those places that pine for the Tony Blair solution to SSM (which also happens to be Harper's position, then and now). Every time Martin opens his mouth about SSM (even in half-assed manner), a lot of his MPs shift uncomfortably in their seats. The same is true, I expect, for the big blue belt in Ontario, those 50 or so seats that are traditionally Conservative. What's sauce for Toronto is not necessarily sauce for Orillia, and Bracebridge. Those are the numbers that the SES polls don't reflect, the small town/big city preferences in Ontario. Such is the problem with polling. The irony of this is that, even though the Tories will likely pickup additional seats in Ontario (I'm not going to posit any opinions about BC), it’s not likely to change much with SH's promised free vote. Replacing a civil union Liberal with a civil union Tory doesn't change very much in Parliament, but it does give the Alex Munter's of this world something to talk about. Cheers Dave Hi Jay,

I like looking at the SES regional numbers too, but I prefer to look at them over time. My favourite numbers are the Atlantic numbers. One day the Grits are ahead of the Tories by 25 points, the next day by 5 points. That’s what happens when your nightly sample size is 40. The Grits have been the leaders in Atlantic opinion surveys since 1988, but it doesn’t always play out in seat totals (although it did in 1993).

The real question is what’s happening on the ground? Which seats are the Grits going to take from the opposition on Jan 23rd? By all accounts, none. There is not one opposition seat east of Quebec City that is in any serious danger of falling to the Grits this time. (in 2004, only two incumbents lost their seats in Atl. Can. One Tory and one Tory turned Grit). In fact, down here the Grits are playing defence, trying to hang on to what they have now. If the national numbers have both big parties in the 30s on Election Day, I expect that the Grits will be five seats lighter down here (3 Tory, 2 NDP), if not more.

I know you have a theory that SSM will work against the Tories, but it might help to look at which seats those 40 Liberal dissenters represented. For the most part they were from Atl Can and rural Ontario, those places that pine for the Tony Blair solution to SSM (which also happens to be Harper’s position, then and now). Every time Martin opens his mouth about SSM (even in half-assed manner), a lot of his MPs shift uncomfortably in their seats. The same is true, I expect, for the big blue belt in Ontario, those 50 or so seats that are traditionally Conservative. What’s sauce for Toronto is not necessarily sauce for Orillia, and Bracebridge. Those are the numbers that the SES polls don’t reflect, the small town/big city preferences in Ontario. Such is the problem with polling. The irony of this is that, even though the Tories will likely pickup additional seats in Ontario (I’m not going to posit any opinions about BC), it’s not likely to change much with SH’s promised free vote. Replacing a civil union Liberal with a civil union Tory doesn’t change very much in Parliament, but it does give the Alex Munter’s of this world something to talk about.

Cheers

Dave

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