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Nov
28
The CPC 50
November 28, 2005 |
I spent a pleasant later afternoon with Kevin Grace reviewing the dismal state of the CPC’s intelligence. We discussed at some length the Tory’s prospects at a riding level - Grewels gone - but I realized that I still owed this blog an explaination of why I think the Tories will be reduced to a fifty seat rump.
Here is the first part: start the count with “safe seats”. Short of a Mulroney or Diefenbaker sweep - which I can’t see happening this time round - seats where Tory members were elected by 10,000 or more votes in the last election are unlikely to fall into Liberal or NDP hands. Basically, a safe seat is a seat where the Tories can, and often do, run a fence post, and still keep the seat.
Here is the breakdown:
BC 10
Alberta 24
Sask 2
Man 5
Ont 2
Maritimes 0
Total 41
(source: Wikipedia)
The CPC will be going into its “Christmas gifts for Grits” election with 98 seats so having 41 safe seats will ensure that they are not deprived of party status, however, everyone of the 57 seats which are not safe will be contested strongly. In five of those seats the Conservative won by less than 500 votes.
Political commentators talk about momentum. Momentum works three ways - as a party gains traction with voters it begins to “win” seats. Its votes add up to enough to beat incumbents from other parties. A party which fails to gain traction will tend to “hold” seats; the advantages of incumbency are significant beginning with name recognition. In this election my view is that the best the Tories can hope for is to hold.
The more likely scenario is, however, that the Tories’ lack of policy, the perception that they have a “hidden agenda”, the media bias against the CPC, the predictable rumblings from the paleo and theocon Tories which will feed the media frenzy and the fact the nitwits have been suckered into a pre-Gomery Christmas election, will ensure they are in “loss” mode pretty much from the beginning.
If the media smells Tory blood the ledes will tend to read, “a struggling Harper”, “fighting to hold critical Ontario ridings…” Once that snowball gets rolling every marginal CPC seat in Canada is up for grabs.
Elections are not subtle things. The 41 Tory safe seats will not see a glimpse of any Liberal more senior than the riding candidate. But there are fifty Tory seats which are going to be targetted hard. Ralph “Goodfairy”dale will be spreading dollars, Cabinet Ministers will be making announcements, star candidates will decend from the heavens. Belinda will be sent on a tour of the 905 to tell lurid tales of the horrors inside the CPC caucus.
For my fifty seat prediction to come true - and to some degree I hope I’m wrong though it seems to me that the Tories’ only hope is such total defeat that they rebuild from the ground up - all that is needed is a few point shift in the polls and some smart constituency fights. From the Liberal perspective, with Gomery likely reducing their seat count in Quebec to single digits, the only place to win a majority is out of the hide of the CPC particularily in Ontario. You can bet that is where David Herle will be pouring blood and treasure.
Comments
5 Comments so far
The Tories already sustained a total defeat which required them to rebuild from the ground up. Do you expect a different result if they are totally defeated again? They were punished for perceived abuses of power. That punishment continues, except the abuse necessarily is assumed to be what will transpire.
[…] You know, the only reason I don’t endorse Jay Currie’s prediction of a Conservative wipeout is that I have every confidence that Team Martin will shortly do somehing venal and opportunistic, thus reminding us why we don’t like them very much either. […]
Great predictions! - methinks you are a gradeA moron!
Always better than being a Grade “c”…
I’m curious as to how you came up with only 2 safe seats in Ontario.
Although the riding I live in was represented by Murray Calder, a Liberal, that was pretty much due to his popular support as an individual, and probably had little to do with the fact he was a Liberal.
When David Tilson ran, another popular personality locally, for the Conservatives in the last election, he beat Calder handily. Tilson was also a former Ontario PC rep here, before Ernie Eves needed a place to run.
I’m sure the Cons always thought of this riding as “safe” as long as Tilson was running - sure enough, he handily beat the Liberal Candidate last night.
Another riding I’m familiar with, Nepean-Carleton, I would have called “safe” and, with Pierre Poilievre gaining about 55% of the vote, certainly indicates my prediction about that was correct.
Then there is Carleton–Mississippi Mills - damn safe, and with the “Rural Revolution” going on, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington I would have called “safe.”
So that’s at least 4 safe ridings. What did you base your counts upon?