Showing up
From a Iggy Press Release:
Number of Delegates
Registered Percentage of Delegates Elected
Michael Ignatieff
1059
77%
Gerard Kennedy
619
76%
Stephane Dion
550
73%
Martha Hall-Findlay
33
73%
Bob Rae
689
73%
Scott Brison
125
69%
Ken Dryden
161
68%
Joe Volpe
105
47%
————
Kinsella says this means Iggy will probably win.
I would say it suggests that Bob Rae will almost certainly lose. But adding Dion and Kennedy’s delegates I get 1169. I also get a delegate total of 3341. This makes the winning delegate count 1671.
Two things to watch for on the first ballot: first, does Iggy beat his 1059 number on the first ballot. What this will suggest is that the fix was very much in down in the alternate delegate room. Second, do the first ballot votes add up to 3341? I would anticipate some slippage.
This is shaping up to be a pretty hardcore fight and one in which the tactics are getting fairly nasty. They will get nastier especially if there is a credentials fight occasioned by the alternate promotion procedure.
Written by jay on December 2nd, 2006 with
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