Serious Fighters
Watching the antics of the assorted Palestinian terrorists in Gaza there is a sense of a sort of hopeless ineptitude combined with a mafia macho swagger. Not so Hezbollah:
Hezbollah’s actions on the battlefields of southern Lebanon should give the Israelis, the West and neighboring Arab governments reason to worry. In just two weeks, Hezbollah has been fighting the Israeli military to an effective standstill on the ground (remember that time is not on Israel’s side due to pressure to accept a cease fire). Not only is Hezbollah fighting at the platoon and company level, but fighting effectively during the initial engagements. al-Qaeda in Iraq (3 years of fighting) and the Taliban in Afghanistan (almost 5 years of fighting) have yet to reach such a level of effectiveness on the battlefield.
Iran has trained a proxy army that now sits on the border with Israeli, an army that cannot be dealt with from the air. If this problem is kicked down the road, Hezbollah will be that much more dangerous. And everything we think we know about Iran’s conventional military capabilities needs to be rethought.
counterterrorism blog
Well armed, dug in and highly motivated, Hezbollah is making the IDF pay for every inch of ground captured. If they can keep doing this a general rethink of how to approach the Middle East is going to come up pretty damn fast.
The issue is not about Israel losing: with enough firepower and manpower and casualties Israel will win here. But the cost could be enormous. At least it is if Israel continues to fight a limited ground war. Slogging it out a mile or two into Lebanon and then handing over to a multinational force which is not going to disarm Hezbollah is a pointless waste of time and money and, sadly, life. Because in this particular little war all Hezbollah has to do to become the object of the Arab street’s affections is stay standing until Israel is forced to allow a ceasefire.
This is not a good outcome for either Isreal or people concerned about Iran’s growing influence.
Strategically my sense is that Israel needs to bring its vastly superior firepower into play. But it also has to be a bit more agressive than simply pushing company strength units a mile or two into Lebanon.
After the “failure” of the Rome meeting - and frankly I don’t think the parties in Rome had any intention of succeeding - Israel has between two and four weeks to crush Hezbollah or accept a cease firre which, as counter-terrorism blog points out simply postpones the problem. Worse, as a propoganda victory, Hezbollah surviving to fight another day would be a huge blow.
From my armchair it seems to me that the Israelis best chance at outright defeating Hezbollah is to drive due north up the Bekaa Valley with serious aircover. Establish a forward base and then work back southward clearing Hez as they go.
There is a slight risk that this might draw Syria into the fight officially; but that is a minor risk compared to Hezbollah surviving as a coherent fighting unit.
One might reasonably ask if Israel has the capacity to fight as smart as she did in the 6 Day War or toward the end of the Yom Kippur War. An entire generation of IDF officers has been stuck in the anti-suicide bomber, security check paradigm of Gaza and the West Bank. Small scale, nasty skirmishes with poorly trained but sometimes lethal thugs. This is essentially police work done by soldiers and that grind is not healthy for an army or an officer corps.
Written by jay on July 27th, 2006 with
4 comments.
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KevinG
jay
SUE
#1. July 27th, 2006, at 5:09 PM.
Intriguing.