Nov

28

Not much fun to be a Grit

November 28, 2005 |

While the CPC is being beaten up by the Liberals, the Grits have their own problems. Particularily in Quebec. If, as I think likely, the Liberals are able to savage the CPC and take 20 to 40 seats, mainly in Ontario, they remain vunerable to both the Bloc and the NDP.

Apparently, the only place where Gomery really matters is Quebec. Polling in Quebec suggests the Liberals are flailling as they should be having broken Quebec election law, behaved like mafioso and generally disgraced themselves and Canada. What that translates to in seats is tough to tell but last time out 34% of the popular vote yielded 21 seats. This time the percentage of popular vote may drop well below 30 and might touch the rock bottom 20% of anglophones, ethnics and federal civil servants who really cannot be seen as potential Bloc voters - and, yes, of course Parizeau was right on Referendum night, Gomery has now traced the money.

Call it a net loss of 15 seats but it could be as many as 18 - Westmount will, one suspects, remain Liberal. Winning 20 in Ontario would offset this; but there is another consideration.

In urban ridings in Canada the NDP has been making some inroads. Not huge, but a seat here and there are bad news for Martin’s dreams of a working majority.

If the Bloc comes out of Quebec with, say, 70 seats and the Tories are reduced to 50-55, the NDP’s votes into seats ratio becomes interesting. It takes 154 to form a bare majority, 160 to be mildly comfortable. If the Block plus the CPC take 125 the question becomes whether ot not the NDP can increase its current 19 seats by, say, 10. In ridings like Vancouver Center relatively weak Liberal incumbents - Hedy Fry in this case - may face serious contests from NDP candidates.

To give an idea of how serious the NDP challenge actually is, in British Columbia alone the ridings of Kamloops, Southern Interios, Dewdney, Fleetwood, Newton, Surrey North, New Westminster, Port Moody, Vancouver Kingsway, Vancouver Center, Esquimalt, Nanaimo, Gulf Islands, Vancouver Island North and Victoria are all very winnable - a margin of less then 4000 votes, by NDP candidates. That’s 14 ridings.

All of which means there could be the rather frustrating result that:

a) the CPC will be reduced to a 50-55 seat rump
b) the BQ will become Her Majesties Loyal (when it suits the interests of Quebec) Opposition
c) The NDP will go to 30 seats
d) Dithers will have a minority government

Pandimonium will ensue.


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