Israel’s plan
So long as Hamas controls Gaza the rockets will fly and, more importantly, no comprehensive peace can be worked out.
The Hamas takeover of Gaza – yes they were elected but not to throw out the Palestinian Authority – effectively blocked a two state deal. Hamas expressly demands the end of Israel. Not much to negotiate.
So, with a little disinformation, Israel was able to hit the gunmen of Hamas – aka “Security Forces” – very, very hard. The vast majority of the dead in the last two days have been those gunmen.
An Israeli intelligence briefing this morning argued that many Palestinians in Gaza were fed up with Hamas.Israel seems to believe it can work on the divisions that already exist between Palestinians until it is possible to detach Hamas from all but its core support, and force it to accept its terms.
But Israel might not get it all its own way. Hamas is unlikely to surrender. It has an ideology of resistance and martyrdom. bbc
I suspect that the BBC is wrong about Hamas and surrender in that the more senior Hamas people will do a bunk if the Israelis show that they are really serious here.
Killing several hundred gunman is a start – the question the Israeli briefer raises is more interesting. If Hamas can be detached from its dominant position in Gaza, would the Gazans be willing to reach a deal with Israel?
Life in Gaza under Hamas has not been pleasant. At a certain point even the Palestinians have to realize that the rockets rarely kill Israelis and, when they do, it merely ensures that Gaza will be cutoff or attacked. They must, at some point, also realize that the Egyptians want nothing to do with Hamas or Gaza so long as Hamas is in charge.
Will the Gazans look for a better way? Will they take one if it is offered?
Resistance and martyrdom do not put food on the table. Thrilling as Palestinian “pride” may be, it has lead to a series of military humiliations which are unlikely to end. Real negotiations which recognize Israel’s right to exist and be free of terror attacks, could well begin the process of the Palestinians’ rehabilitation.
Unfortunately, for those negotiations to take place, the Gazans must have a leadership which is more interested in progress than martyrdom. And that means the elimination of Hamas.
December 28th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Nice post … thanks for the clarity, which is a rarity on these issues nowadays.
December 28th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Thanks Israel. You have screwed up any chance Obama had of bringing peace to the Middle East! /sarq
December 28th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Hamas wants more than the destruction of Israel. That is only the first step. After that is accomplished the next step is the rest of the infidels in the world. BELIEVE IT OR NOT THAT INCLUDES US. LIKE YOU KNOW YOU AND ME
And they will have lots of help doing it. If you don`t believe me Just read the Koran and then google how many of them there are and you will see what I mean.
December 29th, 2008 at 6:04 am
This recent Hamas crackbrained antagonism is, I assume, part and parcel of their whole suicide ideal. Never have I seen people so set on their own self destruction and forcing this ideal on those who host them.
They are handing Israel a legitimate excuse to occupy the strip again.
December 29th, 2008 at 10:41 pm
There is only one proven winning strategy found in game theory. It’s called “tit for tat”. Essentially, it boils down to you get the first hit for free, every hit thereafter is reciprocated. I would like to see it implemented, 200 rocket attacks, 199 reprisals. Works every time.
December 30th, 2008 at 12:08 am
bob, true as far as it goes. However, a guy named Axelrod ran a series of games, iterated Prisoner’s Dilemmas, and it turned out that fairly quickly the reputation value of co-operation began to beat tit for tat.
I think that in game theoretical terms what we have here is one side which sees winning as co-operation and the other side which sees any form of co-operation, even if it made them substantially better off, as a loss. From our perspective that looks entirely irrational; from theirs “loving death” is a spiritual good that value of which cannot be measured in this world.
That, in turn, means that Hamas will not negotiate regardless of the suffering that imposes on the Gazans or the Palestinians in general. Now, frankly, there is little other than killing Hamas members that Israel can do in the face of this. However, the Palestinians themselves can and should say, “Enough!”
My sense is that the Israelis are trying to create the conditions in which such a Palestinian uprising is possible.
December 30th, 2008 at 5:46 am
Thats a circular argument. Israel is creating the climate for co-operation through the employment of “tit for tat”. There are no prisoners in the present scenario hence no dilemma. You cannot create a dilemma until someone gets it beaten into their thick heads that the course of action they are taking is not profitable. If step one is not accomplished then step two (co-operation) can’t occur. All Axelrod did was change the playing field, he did not introduce a new strategy.
I am sympathetic to Israel and hopeful that Hamas will be shown as impotent and useless. However, I think that Israel should have retaliated after the second rocket attack not after the three thousandth.Then we wouldn’t have to put up with the argument that their response to the attacks was out of proportion.Punishment delayed is also a factor.