Iggy, Rae, Kennedy, Dion…
Interesting to see Iggy do pretty well, Rae not so well, Dion about as expected and Kennedy brilliantly everywhere but Quebec.
Now, if you were Harper’s brain trust you have to be rooting for Rae if only because he is a proven loser in Ontario. However, Kennedy winning with almost no support in Quebec would be almost as good as Tory growth potential in Quebec is, in theory, greater than in Ontario.
Iggy would be a problem simply because he is at least half again as smart as Harper, speaks better French, is just as tough on foreign policy and has some charisma. However, an Iggy win might well seal the deal for the lefties in the Grits to walk. Bush derrangement mainly; but also the realization that their natural home is in the NDP. This would result in a weaker, albeit more coherent, Liberal Party which could challenge Harper on center ground.
I don’t see Dion gowing much at this point. He failed to take his home province - which is no surprise as he has been willing to tell Quebec some home truths which have not been forgotten or forgiven - and will arrive at the convention with great respect and not quite enough delegates to swing it. Again, not a hell of a lot of room to grow.
We are going to be hearing a lot about the ex officio (read party hacks) delegates. All 1000 of them. Being Liberal hacks by definition they are likely to owe their positions to the entrenched left in the party and, as activists, will tend to veer left rather than center or right. However, being hacks their main loyalty will be to the Liberal Party’s natural right to rule which Mr. Harper has so rudely interupted. While I suspect they will scatter on the first ballot, their essential venality will get the better of them on the second and they can be counted upon to vote for which ever candidate looks as if he has a serious shot at beating Harper. And, being hacks, they will base that assessement on poll results - both public and private.
Were I Iggy’s people I would have a weekly private poll in the field on electability on a head to head with Harper: I would then statistically massage the results of that poll to ensure that my guy did ok but that all the others tanked. About two weeks ahead of the convention I would be leaking that poll to ex officio folks without attribution. That and a few quiet words about jobs in the next Liberal government and Iggy should have the momentum to sew it up.
Written by jay on October 2nd, 2006 with
1 comment.
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#1. October 3rd, 2006, at 3:29 AM.
Ah, but can Mr. Ignatieff beat Mr. Harper?
Not sure. I think that Harper can take him. Not that he necessarily will, but that he can, if he doesn’t screw up.
It’d be a grand election to watch, anyway, and so that’s why I’m cheering for Iggy right now.