Half of life…
is showing up.
In principle there are 6000 plus delegate slots at the Liberals’ leadership confab. 5000 regulars and 1000 ex officio (in round numbers). But how many are going to show up? Most of the ex-officio delegates - say 900 or so - are party hacks and activists (but I repeat myself) who are more likely to miss their mother’s funeral than a Liberal Party convention.
But the 5000?
Tait Simpson, a Liberal Party flack, told the Hill Times he’s expecting well over 4000. But, as he is a flack lets take it as a nice round 4000. Less the 900 ex-officio which leaves 3100 elected delegates. Who have to pay their own way. $995 for convention fees and whatever it costs to get to Montreal and stay for a few days.
Now, who do you think this favours: Gerald Kennedy with less than 2% support in Quebec? If we take the provinces within driving distance of Montreal there have been roughly 2200 delegates elected. Given that these folks are not faced with quite the same financial challenge as those from Alberta or snowbound BC, how do they break out?
886 Iggy 508 Rae, 405 Kennedy and 300 Dion.
The fact is that the no-show delegates will likely be two things: from the West and rather less well off than the delegates who do show up. The general perception is that, even after the defection of Heather Reisman, Iggy supporters tend to have corner offices in tall towers. Now that it is actually illegal to write a cheque to send a worthy youth delegate from Pouce Coupe or a Women’s Commission member from LeDuc, it is a good bet that the delegates will skew upper middle class or better. There will be very little rabble to be roused.
Will this cut Iggy’s way? It may. Particularly if the costs of the convention ensure there is a truly low turnout. Iggy’s folks are going to show up, the other delegates may not be able to.
Written by jay on November 28th, 2006 with
no comments.
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