Fish or Cut Bait
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s proposal of an international televised debate with President Bush is one more box off the back of the Iranian nuclear truck designed to divert the chase.
But is the chase serious.
“I think the time has passed to speak of the Security Council and the tools they can use to force a country to do certain things,” he said.
Ahmadinejad said he would reject any suspension of enrichment, even if requested by U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan during an upcoming visit to Iran.
cnn
Clearly Ahmadinejad has joined the rest of the world in recognizing that the UN is a paper tiger. Plus there is not going to be any but the mildest sanctions resolution regardless of Iran’s actions simply because neither China nor Russia are prepared to allow one.
Which means what? Well, at a minimum, any sanctions will have huge holes in them and will not have the limited cover of a UN resolution. It also means that the West is going to have to consider what, if anything, it can do about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. (Not to mention its support for Hezbollah and the Sadr thugs in Iraq and assorted bits of freelance terror.
It comes down to this choice: will nations such as the United States, the UK, Australia and, in a small way, Canada use military force to try to stop Iran or will they wave but not use their sabres?
Neither are attractive options. Even a limited military action in Iran could have deadly serious effects throughout the region. But doing nothing is simply postponing the problem. And postponement leads to a nuclear Iran.
I suspect the best solution would be a naval blockade with the threat of more direct acion to follow. Basically close Iran’s ports to all shipping in or out. It would be an act of war but it would limit the damage to Iran and its population.
One step up the ladder would be the bombing of Iran’s gasoline refineries. Iran is not self-sufficient in gas and taking out a few refineries would put more pressure on the regime.
To a degree the objective here should be narrow: excert enough pressure on Iran to force it to cease all nuclear activity while, at the same time, doing as little harm to the population as possible.
Indeed, the blockade could be implemented in stages so as to at first restrict Iran’s trade before cutting it off altogether. The initial stage could be the checking, very slowly, of every ship going into or out of Iraq for nuclear materials and technology.
In the recent Israel/Hezbollah war there was a lot of nattering about proportionality. A graduated naval blockade would be exquisitely proportional.
Written by jay on August 30th, 2006 with
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