Election Notes

Concerned: Outside the James Bay liquor store there was an earnest, drab, 60 something woman, all grey uncut hair and Birkenstocks thrusting an equally grey, badly printed, tab sheet from the Council of Concerned Canadians into the unwilling hands of the beer buyers. It was the first sign of canvassing I’ve seen this go round.

Signs: We hiked up into Fairfield to catch the first garage sales of the season. A fair sprinkling of NDP signs, few Liberal or Tory signs and all the Green signs were on public property.

Beers and Popcorn: I suspect Scott Reid may go down in the footnotes of Canadian political history as the first entirely unelected hack to actually lose a sitting government an election. If you look at the polling, the Liberal decline pretty much started when Scott so eloquently expressed his, and by extension, the Liberal Party’s contempt for Canadian parents.

Nightmare: While the polling as the election closes suggests the Conservatives have a significant lead there are lots of plausible scenarios in which that lead will not translate into a majority. But the nightmare is the scenario in which it does not translate into government at all. All that needs to happen is for the Bloc to win 65 plus seats in Quebec and the NDP to hit 40 across the country. This would leave the Tories and the Grits to fight it out over 203 seats. Propose the Tories take 113 leaving the Liberals with 90. Who forms the government? The Dumpling would have - by the unwritten constitution he so recently trashed - the right to meet the House and to attempt to govern in coalition with the NDP. The Bloc might well sit on its hands for the sheer delight of haviing the Dumpling to kick around for another year or two.

Agendas: As elections go this one has pretty much failed in terms of setting a positive agenda. It has been about the Liberals having nothing to say and the CPC making sure it said nothing. If the Liberals are defeated - and I think they will be - it will be because they have run out of vision and been caught by scandal. If the Tories win, and I think they will, it will be because they have learned to run a disciplined campaign to reassure the wary and because Canadians have, finally, recognized that the Liberals are morally and intellectually bankrupt.

Regardless of which party wins, neither will have anything like a mandate for radical change. The Dumpling because he has essentially spent eight weeks putting out fires rather than enuciating a positive program. The CPC because, in their quest for power, they have carefully promised to follow the main outlines of the Liberal agenda for Canada.

The Right Outcome: At this point Canada needs to be rid of the Liberals. But we do not need a horde of evangelicals brooding in the backbenchs waiting for the Conservative Party to get on to their agenda. So long as there is even a possibility of those zealots furthering their agenda the CPC cannot be trusted with a majority position. So, sadly, the best outcome, until the CPC deals with its socon problem, will be a decent minority. Harper needs to have the opportunity to govern. And he needs to have the opportunity to further define the CPC away from the religious right. A minority would give Harper both opportunities while firewalling Canada from the excesses of the fundy taliban.

Written by jay on January 23rd, 2006 with 8 comments.
Read more articles on CPC and Canadian Politics and Liberals and Uncategorized.

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Get your own gravatar by visiting gravatar.com rethos
#1. January 23rd, 2006, at 1:54 AM.

Hey, CHECK THIS OUT! It’s a ‘Godfather’ spoof election video: http://www.thejackproblem.ca that just got released.

It’s not your typical TV political ad – very funny and creative. Let me know what you all think…

Get your own gravatar by visiting gravatar.com ian Welsh
#2. January 23rd, 2006, at 2:43 AM.

Well Jay, I’m impressed by your integrity in keeping to your decision about the SoCons. I doubt we’ll ever agree on much in politics, but you have my respect.

Get your own gravatar by visiting gravatar.com Flea
#3. January 23rd, 2006, at 4:41 AM.

“It has been about the Liberals having nothing to say and the CPC making sure it said nothing.”

And that would be the best summary I have read of the whole fiasco.

Get your own gravatar by visiting gravatar.com KevinG
#4. January 23rd, 2006, at 11:52 AM.

“If the Tories win, and I think they will, it will be because they have learned to run a disciplined campaign to reassure the wary …”

And, because they took two giant policy steps towards the center and spent the pre-christmas half of the election delivering policy that the enormous Canadian middle could relate to.

I think it’s demonstrably wrong to argue that the CPC said nothing. What they did was say nothing controversial.

As a consequence, they’re electable.

Get your own gravatar by visiting gravatar.com colino
#5. January 23rd, 2006, at 6:00 PM.

Other than SSM, what socially conservative policies do you believe a majority CPC government would act on?

I seems to me unlikely that a CPC government would do anything very far outside mainstream Canadian values, unless they have no interest in being elected again. Further, there does not appear to be anything, other than a free vote on SSM which is unlikely to change anything at all, in the CPC platform which is any more socially consevative than is in the Liberal platform.

I confess that I held the same concern as you some time ago, but I wonder if the concern is still justified.

Get your own gravatar by visiting gravatar.com Flea
#6. January 23rd, 2006, at 8:09 PM.

In some ways SSM is the least of it not due to its importance but due to the high-profile of the issue. Less glamorous issues such as retroactive spousal benefits are going to sound technical, attract less attention and consequently the CPC might maintain its newly minted moderate image while doing everything it can to undermine and obstruct equality before the law. But the real bone of contention is going to be abortion. I imagine it is possible that a Conservative minority might convince the socons to sit on their hands in anticipation of a majority but I doubt this particular cat will stay in the bag for long (to mangle metaphors).

Get your own gravatar by visiting gravatar.com herringchoker
#7. January 23rd, 2006, at 10:15 PM.

Hi Jay,

Re: Nightmare

Steve Janke posed a similar scenario last which I hope I disabused. Here’s what I wrote then:

Fly in the ointment time Angry.

There are substantial differences from the Ontario example.

First off, Frank Miller, the Tory leader was allowed to remain premier (he had the most seats after all) after the vote. The LG, JB Aird, only asked the LO to step up after the Miller gov’t fell on a confidence motion. Miller asked for another election and Aird said no. Of course, by that time the Lib/NDP agreement was well-known.

Secondly, and more importantly, the Peterson Liberals and the Rae Dippers had a majority with their combined totals, even though they were in 2nd and 3rd spots after the vote. In your scenario, even if the combined Crook/Commie numbers exceeded the Tory total, they still would not have a working gov’t. They would need the support of the Bloc to make it work.

Now, if Martin tried to cobble together a Crook/Traitor coalition, or a Crook/Commie/Traitor coalition, the GG might be prepared to consider it, but I have this feeling that more than a few of his surviving backbenchers might not be willing to play that game. The Volpe/Valeri/Brison faction would be all for it (after all, what is one more contortion after everything they have been through) but I suspect the Goodale/Commuzzi/McKay Liberals might just decide to pull a Kilgour if faced with having to be nice to Duceppe and his happy band of homewreckers. After all, it’s not like they could ever hope to run for office ever again.

I’m just saying…

Posted by: herringchoker at January 20, 2006 01:52 PM

In your scenario Dithers refuses to resign (ala WLM King) which, I have to admit, I don’t think is beyond him. Unfortunately I don’t think the GG could possible entertain his position given that he and the NDP would lack a working majority. It would far too unstable and her constitutional advisors would inform her so. The safest course would be to have the RCMP frogmarch Dithers off the grounds and offer the job to Harper.

Of course, if Dithers opted to try to make a deal with Duceppe, well that would certainly be worth the price of admission (see above).

Get your own gravatar by visiting gravatar.com jay
#8. January 24th, 2006, at 12:50 AM.

I’ve no doubt that the Dumpling and his minnions would do a deal with Satan himself to stay in office…Duceppe could well be the most powerful man in Canada at about 10:10 Eastern time.

Thank God we have an experienced, polished, constitutionally aware, cute as a button, GG to handle what could be a defining crisis in the Canadian Confederation.

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