Destabilization - its a good thing
Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, said Thursday that he had been warning the Bush administration in recent days that Iraq was hurtling toward disintegration, a development that he said could drag the region into war.
“There is no dynamic now pulling the nation together,” he said in a meeting with reporters at the Saudi Embassy here. “All the dynamics are pulling the country apart.” He said he was so concerned that he was carrying this message “to everyone who will listen” in the Bush administration.
new york times
Ian Welsh posts a five scenario breakdown of the state of Iraqi play.
Here’s the bottom line, which I’ve stated before. There are five possible end states in Iraq.
1. Control by by a Shia/Kurdish alliance strongly backed by Iran.
2. A civil war which the Sunni’s win.
3. A reboot of the dictator software.
4. A failed state.
5. A partition
And Michael Ledeen at NRO suggests,
Many Iranians have come to the conclusion that their country is a dangerous place, and they are running. A significant number of former officials have left Iran for infidel countries in the past few weeks and months. The former minister of culture, Ayatollah Mohajerani, has gone to London, along with the former mayor of Tehran, Mohammed Hassan Malekmadani. Mohsen Sazegara, a founder of the Revolutionary Guards, is now in Washington. Mohammed Taghi Banki and Cyrus Nasseri, until recently high-ranking officials, have gone to Austria. And these are the lucky ones, because they have managed to escape the Islamic republic. Within the cauldron, the purge continues, as I have suggested it would. Ten members of the Khorassan judiciary have been forced to resign. The commander in chief of the army is gone. Payman Forouzesh and Golmohammad Baqeri, both members of the last parliament, have resigned, as has Mohammed Mirlohi, the deputy minister of legal and parliamentary affairs. Other resignations and departures are likely to follow in short order; a friend of mine who knows a great deal about the affairs of banks in the Persian Gulf tells me there is an unprecedented flow of private money out of Iran to places like Dubai, Abu Dabhi, and Qatar.
This exodus does not bespeak either a tranquil country or a regime confident of its internal power, especially against the background of the massive repression now under way. It rather suggests a regime that knows it is hated, and intends to stay in power by crushing anyone in its way, both at home and abroad. It is reminiscent of the final days of the Nazi regime, when the Fuhrer in his bunker swung wildly between megalomaniacal dreams of miraculous world conquest, and deep depression, alternately purging his old guard and promoting incompetent underlings to positions of great power.
nro
I have long thought it made much more sense to partition Iraq. (And if Blogger had not eaten my blogs I’d cite the examples.) The Kurds in the north have effectively been independent for the last ten years and run a pretty efficient, pretty peaceful region. The Shia south, to a degree governed by Sistani, would not be a place I would want to live, but democracy is like that. The Sunni triangle, deprived of its ongoing oil revenue which Saddam used to finance his regime, would become something of a Gaza. A wall might not be a bad idea.
The Saudis see Iran getting ambitious. Which is, no doubt, correct. However there is considerable question as to the ability of the Iranian mullahs to retain power in Iran and, in particular, to do so in the face of a moderating influence from Najaf, a spiritual center for Shi’ites at least as important as Qom in Iran.
It is, of course, little wonder that the Saudis are worried. The lack of legitimacy of their regime and the fact alQaeda has been operating in the Kingdom is terrifying. So is the prospect that the Americans are less than willing to continue to prop up anti-democratic governments. Plus, with the current price of oil, the future of oil alternatives and the substitution of small cars for SUV’s threatens to cut their revenues at a time when the princely class is competing for a share of a shrinking pie.
Critically, the most important thing for the West to do at the moment is keep the pressure on the Iranians to give up their nuclear program. While it gives the mullahs a rallying point, it also can and will create the conditions for the Iranian counter revolution. The repressions of the current regime are reminincent of the last days not of Hitler but of the Shah. The Revolutionary Guards have taken the place of Savak and the Council of Religious elders, who effectively run the country, are as out of touch with the population as the Shah was.
Pushing hard on the Iranian regime, including sanctions and covert action to begin to deal with the terrorists which are being sheltered by the regime, can and should bring about the destruction of yet another Islamo fascist state. Not before time.
Written by jay on September 30th, 2005 with
1 comment.
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#1. September 30th, 2005, at 6:18 AM.
Yeah, because sanctions worked so well against Saddam…
Terrible idea. And no, the nuclear program is not critical. The Terrorism-enabling is. Here’s my take on Iran.