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the tyee
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Nov
29
Christmas comes early for the Liberals
November 29, 2005 |
‘No, no, not that briar patch….Arrrrh.”
Right. Now that the Liberals have kicked off the campaign by being defeated at a time of their choosing, after making all the election announcements it is possible to make, after euchring the Opposition into defeating them on the thin air basis of “no moral authority” (which comes from who, God, the Pope, Liz Windsor?) and negotiating a Christmas holiday from the 23rd to January 3rd (just in case the Tories or NDP pick up any momentum in the early weeks of the campaign), we can get down to the real business at hand….nothing.
Oh, Dithers will drop by the GG’s and pick up his writ. And there will be a few Liberal campaign signs go up. And various Liberal surrogates will get the scary Stephen meme out and dust it off. But Herle and company, having been handed the political gift of the decade, are not going to risk ruining it by opening it too soon.
At a guess, 80% of the Grits media spend will be in BC and Ontario with a few dollars for the Maritimes and a buck or two for Manitoba and Sask. And 80% of that is going to be spent from January 3 to January 23. The Harperites will have a clear field to accuse the Liberals of unparalleled nastiness, corruption and kitty torture. At a guess the Grits may even taunt them into it. From the Liberal perspective the very best thing which can happen is for the mental giants who run the CPC’s media and ad ops to go negative early and often.
Come the new year the Grits have a choice. If the polls are going ok they take the high road, talk about Liberal accomplishments, deficit busting, tax cuts, including Canadians. If the polls look wobbly outcomes the hidden agenda and Harper wrapped in the American flag.
About the 15th of December I have to bet you’ll see Paul have a cow about the prefidous Yankees and make a speech about how he needs a strong mandate to negotiate with the Bush “regime”. That’s a twofer because it slaps Harper’s supposed pro-Americanism and sucks soft left votes away from Smilin’ Jack.
More than anything else, Martin will want to fly his sleigh right under the radar until, in the New Year, but before the Visa bills come in, he pops up whacks Harper so hard the Tories will be punch drunk for the next decade.
The phoney war has now, at the insistance of the Opposition, begun. The Grits will be firing the occasional ranging shot, the Tories will waste their ammunition firing in every direction at once until, when the polls begin to crater and the Currie 50 seat prediction looks smart, the Conservatives’ most imporatant, cherished, political instinct will kick in: beset by even more evidence that the Liberals are smarter and more astute than they are, the Tories will form a circle and fire inwards.
Which, all things considered, would not be the worst thing in the world for the Conservative interest in Canada.
Comments
5 Comments so far
I wouldn’t be shocked if it goes a lot like you describe.
You know, if there was a half-decent campaigner in the race we’d be facing the biggest landslide in Canadian history.
Your writings on the election are lately the only ones that make sense to me.
50 seats? I think it’s time you started taking daily multi-vitamins. Love your blog but this post wreaks.
Great writing and even more impressive observations. It’s good to read a post by someone who actually knows what he’s talking about. I’ve read more b.s. by American bloggers and PC supporters, it boggles the mind how any of them exist day to day.
You make sense. You’re right on the money I think. And you know how it works here in Canada. Seriously, you should have a national column and get paid for this. Or do you already and I’ve just not heard about it yet?
No national column…but let’s get that meme up and running.