Bye, Bye Kyoto
November 2nd, 2005
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When Tony Blair recognizes in print that
We need to cut greenhouse gas emissions radically but Kyoto doesn’t even stabilise them….We have to understand as well that, even if the US did sign up to Kyoto, it wouldn’t affect the huge growth in energy consumption we will see in India and China. China is building close to a new power station every week. They need economic growth to lift hundreds of millions out of poverty but want to grow sustainably. We have to find a way, as a start, to help them.
the observer
Kyoto is really all over save the shouting.
Blair – like the US, India, China and Australia – has realized that the solution – if there is one – to human induced climate change – if that actually exists – is technological rather than bureaucratic,
We need to see how the existing energy technologies we have such as wind, solar and – yes – nuclear, together with new technologies such as fuel cells and carbon capture and storage, can generate the low carbon power the world needs.Cleaner, more efficient energy generation is a good in itself. It has the potential to make energy cheaper, more abundant and much cleaner. The illusion of change implicit in carbon trading (which, sadly, Blair still endorses) and mandated carbon reductions under threat of fines simply postpones the day when it wil make economic sense to move away from fossil fuels towards more efficient energy sources and more effective energy uses.
the observer
Remember this number: China uses seven times the energy input per unit of production as America does. Reducing that to, say three times will do much more towards the reduction of carbon emissions than virtually anything proposed in Kyoto.

Kyoto lays down the infrastructure to allow the techological solutions to be financed and leveraged in to real life. Without the institutions Kyoto is putting in to place China & India would develop with what existing technologies they can afford (almost certainly not clean and efficient). With Kyoto however they can now use carbon credits to pay for more efficient & cleaner technologies to be used in their development / increasing energy generating activities.
Also without Kyoto, the creative forces of the market are not applied to innovation. The US solution is simply medium sized fiscal commitments. These are nearly always spent inefficently. Kyoto creates the mechanism to allow innovators to be incentivised.
Lastly, and most importantly Kyoto also creates the mechanis to allow the least cost of emission abatement to be identified.
Yes, Kyoto is bureacratic but so is the legal system that under pins all property rights. It is a necessary cost. And yes, the Kyoto targets in the first commitment period may generate the reductions we need but it does build the institutions / capacity to allow it to happen in the fuutre.