An Electoral Thought Experiment
It is possible that, with his enhanced minority, Stephen Harper, will actually make the attempt to govern like a Conservative. We’ll have to see.
Here’s the litmus test: the repeal of s. 13 of the Canadian Human Rights Act.
But let’s say he doesn’t. Let’s say he is too afraid of the Lying Jackal and the liberal MSM. What then?
Here’s a thought. Let’s start our own party. Small, targeted and deadly.
The targets are the 40 or so ridings in Canada which were close. The invaluable Pundit’s Guide lists 42 close races.
Now imagine an avowedly right wing party running candidates in, say 20 of those. And imagine the Libs elect the Lying Jackal’s likely choice, Iggy.
Ultimately, politics is about power and power is about choke points. It is not out of the question for a right wing – but not insane – party to win 1000 votes in each of 20 ridings. Which would put paid to any hope Harper has of a majority.
Split the Right. Well, yes, unless the CPC begins to pay attention to its allegedly conservative principles.
Keith Martin won Esquimalt by less than 100 votes. With a solid right wing candidate bleeding votes from the CPC that Liberal victory would be 500 to 1000. The CPC took Kitchener-Waterloo by 17 votes. Gary Lund won Saanich and the Gulf Islands by 2625 votes and could be vulnerable next time out.
Yes, it might result in an Iggy lead (or worse Bob Rae lead) Liberal government; but at the moment we have a Stephen Harper lead Liberal government so what’s the big deal?
Such a right wing party would not be running to win; rather it would be running to deny Harper victory so long as Harper refuses to govern like a conservative. Such a party would be a spoiler.
And it would be a goad. Something which, apparently, Mr. Harper needs right about now.
November 10th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Another litmus test might be a possible bailout to the auto sector. That’s picking winners, pandering to Ontario AND deficit spending. If he goes forward with all that, we know he’s just a less successful version of Mulroney.
November 11th, 2008 at 4:17 am
Splitting the right will only give us back the Liberals, even a liberal Harper, is better than a Liberal PM. the Libs need to be out of power for a few years.
November 11th, 2008 at 6:15 am
Splintering Schismist
November 11th, 2008 at 9:47 am
That’s just cutting off your nose to spite your face.
do you seriously think we would be better off if you fucked us all
by splitting the vote and letting Saint Iggy win? If you think that
then you are seriously delusional and need you meds adjusted.
A much better route would be to vociferously make it clear that you
will not provide any funding to the party while it ignores these matters.
And that you will be looking for an actual conservative (ok: classical
liberal!) to run against the present CPC member.
November 11th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Keith Martin makes an interesting case in point, since he introduced a Bill to rid us of Sec 13(1). That earned him a $50 contribution from me (which got my name on to the dread Liberal begging list), which was accompanied by a note to the Tory candidates in my area (I am not in Martin’s riding of Esquimalt) explaining why I was not supporting them financially.
A much better route would be to vociferously make it clear that…
And when the Conservative Party of Canada ignores your vociferous clarity (and if the past is any guide, they will), what is your plan B? I read this as preparation for Plan B, not as an alternative to making your opinions heard within the CPC.
November 11th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
dcardno, my thinking is that the mere threat of a “Real Tory” party running in the marginals will concentrate the wayward minds of the CPC warroom.
And the beauty of it is that we would not be running to win so we could have some fun.
November 11th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
Perhaps a few Liberals should run as classical liberals.
That would add to the fun and maybe even work for them.
November 12th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Jay – I agree that a credible Plan B is part of the exercise in getting the CPC to listen when presented with Plan A
November 14th, 2008 at 11:20 am
I think it’s a reasonable idea, but I’d suggest also (if practical) including at least part of Alberta in such a plan. Since we are mostly right-wing voters, a real conservative choice could erode what has become a largely ignored and taken for granted base of support.
I am having increasing difficulty spotting the differences between the Harper Conservatives and the Liberals and many out this way feel the same.