Jay Currie

The Lebanese Cabinet was supposed to meet to ratify the terms of the UN Ceasefire and get on with the task of assembling and dispatching 15,000 Lebanese Army men to get on with the job of disarming Hezbollah. This meeting has been postponed apparently because Hezbollah’s political wing is not happy with the dispatch of troops or the requirement to disarm.

Captain Ed points out that if the plan were to be implemented Hezbollah would be transformed from a “reistance” organization to just another “terrorist militia”.

Reasonable people have been sceptical from the go as to the likely effectiveness of a UN led force disarming anyone; but the problem for Hezbollah is that with a real force in place and the Israelis out of Lebanon there is really nothing left for them to do. So now they are blocking the Lebanese implementation of the ceasefire.

With a little luck Hezbollah may be able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. At this point, the world at large and Israel have all signed on to the imperfect UN ceasefire resolution. Hezbollah’s leader had indicated a willingness to comply. But the postponement of the Lebanese Cabinet meeting puts the entire process back in play.

This is a pure gift to the IDF which had surged into Lebanon in anticipation of the ceasefire. If the battlefield tempo is maintained the Israelis should be able to secure most of Lebanon south of the Litani River. Plus, Israel has finally started to run airborne assualts up the Bekka Valley. A few days of this and Hezbollah should be significantly degraded. (Finally.)

Better still, the strategic genius running Hezbollah has decided to mark the start of the ceasefire with a 250 rocket barrage. Israel needs no further pretext to take out the Hez positions.

Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah was tettering on the brink of bragging rights to having defeated the IDF. (He hadn’t but that doesn’t matter in the perception wars in the Middle East.) Now, unless he can bring his people to the table and stop the rockets, he may have handed the Israelis the right to systematically demolish his militia. Better still, Israel will be in full compliance with its obligations under the UN resolution – that is she will be ready and able to cease hostilities whenever a) Lebanon can come up with its 15,000 men, b) Hezbollah stops firing rockets. Both of these conditions are in the control of Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah and he seems to be dithering.

It is an unexpected gift to an Israel whose politicians may just have the wit to exploit it.