We’ve got ourselves a ballgame
| Michael Ignatieff | 1,412 |
| Bob Rae | 977 |
| Gerard Kennedy | 856 |
| Stéphane Dion | 854 |
| Ken Dryden | 238 |
| Scott Brison | 192 |
| Joe Volpe | 156 |
| Martha Hall Findlay | 130 |
Total ballots cast: 4815 To Win 2407
So Iggy hits just under 30% and needs 1000 new votes to win. Did the speeches matter? Not for this first ballot. But the relative performances of the candidates and the buzz about that performance is going to have a significant impact on the second and - likely - third ballots.
It is not at all obvious where Iggy is going to pick up 1000 votes. If he had delivered a great speech the idea that there would be movement from the various camps would make sense. But with his relatively lackluster speech that logic goes out the window.
If there is a surprise here it is that Kennedy and Dion ended in a dead heat. Either have nearly enough delegates to push Iggy over the top. neither has much incentive. One might be able to walk up the middle if the other throws support early.
And what of Rae? Basically Rae has to pick up a few hundred delegates on the first ballot and then cut a deal with one of Dion or Kennedy (or both). Here is where a good speech may have made the difference. Rae has to be betting that there will be enough delegate movement to keep him in sight of Iggy.
Volpe has gone to Rae, his organizers may have gone to Iggy. MHF will be off the ballot and it is not clear where she is sending her delegates if anywhere.
Dryden is widely seen as having made a genuinely excellent speech. One good enough to ensure that he will be able to stay on the ballot for a couple of rounds without losing any respect.
The buzz in Liberal blogland seems to go back to the ex officios - the hacks. They were supposed to go significantly Iggy’s way. Apparently they haven’t. As one commentor at Livin’ it up in Gritland puts it,
The blood-letting for Iggy begins on the second ballot, though in the loss of anticipated ex-officio votes one can see more than a trickle of of the red stuff.
UPDATE: I took the table above directly from the CBC…and it’s wrong. Dion was in third place, Kennedy in fourth rather than the placing in the chart. Sorry!
Written by jay on December 2nd, 2006 with
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