The Tories, for their part, have also moved left, which is to say into the centre. Sensing an opportunity to make the Conservatives the new “natural governing party,” Mr. Harper has pushed through the most extraordinary series of reversals: whether of policies his government had just adopted (the ill-fated Clean Air Act), or of promises on which they campaigned a year ago (income trusts), or in some cases of the beliefs of a lifetime. But again, they overdid it, alienating their own base even as they were confusing other potential voters. Tory partisans have been left reassuring themselves of the very thing they most hotly deny to others: Don’t worry, there’s a hidden agenda. andrew coyne, national post
As we enter what may very well be our Summer of Discontent, Canadians are united in their disappointment with the federal parties. This much Coyne gets right. But he cites a variety of issues - from leadership to specific policy positions.
I think he is wrong because the disappointment comes from a much deeper source: Canadians are smart enough to see pandering and lying for what they are. Sometimes - often on the national unity file - they will look the other way. But this time is different because the issue has become so universal.
A huge majority of Canadians believe in “man made” global warming. Why wouldn’t they? The mass media have reached consensus even if the scientists haven’t: Al Gore is right and we are all going to die. There are a few of us who see this as bunkum on a scientific or economic basis; but the vast majority are pretty much convinced. Which means they all have “views” on the subject and those views are powered by a cross between colossal ignorance, enormous certainty and - most importantly - fervent denial that they, personally, will have to do much beyond curbside recycling. Now, not surprisingly, this position is completely irrational and, worse, essentially impossible to satisfy, because it is based on a cascading series of fictions, emotions, misunderstood science and guilt.
What is happening politically is that each of the parties is, at the same time, trying to pander by demanding or promising solutions “right now” while promising that none of its programs will actually cause any pain for the average Canadian. Which even the dumbest voter realizes cannot possibly be true. So, on the top-of-the-mind issue of the day average Canadians know they are being lied to by every single one of the federal parties. And they are right because not one of those parties is willing to tell the truth for fear that that truth will be used by the other three parties to beat them to death.
Worse, the brighter lights in each of the parties - even the Greens - know that Kyoto is a joke and the science on global warming is becoming less catastrophic by the day. They know that Algore 20 foot sea level rise is directly contradicted by IPCC 4. They know that the degree of uncertainty in climate modeling makes most 50 year out predictions no better than a coin toss proposition. Which means they know they are lying and proposing policy on the basis of lies.
Whichever party breaks the convenient circle of lies is going to get hit hard for a few months while the rest of the world catches up. But the first mover is going to have the great advantage of being first off the bandwagon. They will be able to rally all those Canadians who don’t buy global warming as well as the Canadians whose faith is beginning to wane. The global warming hysteria, like most mob events, will diminish as quickly as it arose. The question is which of the political parties will have the wit to recognize that it’s over and that it is time to start telling Canadians the truth again.
Written by jay on May 17th, 2007 with no comments.
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While I kid Kate about her naughty books hysteria she is doing sterling work on the “global warming” front. Today she points to the US Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works where there is a rather instructive article on scientists who previously believed in global warming but who have now become apostate. And worse, are talking about it:
Wiskel also said that global warming has gone “from a science to a religion” and noted that research money is being funneled into promoting climate alarmism instead of funding areas he considers more worthy. “If you funnel money into things that can’t be changed, the money is not going into the places that it is needed,” he said. US Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works
or,
According to the National Post, Shaviv believes that even a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere by 2100 “will not dramatically increase the global temperature.” “Even if we halved the CO2 output, and the CO2 increase by 2100 would be, say, a 50% increase relative to today instead of a doubled amount, the expected reduction in the rise of global temperature would be less than 0.5C. This is not significant,” US Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works
or,
When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty conclusive, but since then new evidence has weakened the case that carbon emissions are the main cause. I am now skeptical,” Evans wrote in an April 30, 2007 blog. “But after 2000 the evidence for carbon emissions gradually got weaker — better temperature data for the last century, more detailed ice core data, then laboratory evidence that cosmic rays precipitate low clouds,” Evans wrote. “As Lord Keynes famously said, ‘When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?’” US Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works
And so on…
Written by jay on May 17th, 2007 with no comments.
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A debate raging over the morals of Hong Kong’s racy media took a bizarre twist Wednesday with revelations that a decency watchdog had been flooded with obscenity complaints about the Bible.
The Television and Entertainments Licensing Authority (Tela), which oversees the publishing industry, said it had received 208 complaints that text within the holy book was indecent. religious news blog via magic stats
Quick, call Kate. Lot’s daughters??
Of course, to be fair, there is not much chance of the Bible being an assigned text in a Canadian public school so our children are safe.
Written by jay on May 17th, 2007 with no comments.
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Global climate models are missing a good chunk of plant information that could significantly alter long-term climate change predictions. A new technique for modeling phytoplankton — microscopic plants in the upper layers of the Earth’s waters — could reveal a much more accurate picture. wired
Phytoplankton are more important than the world’s forests when it comes to CO2 processes and they dwarf human CO2 emissions. Until now they were just one more fudge factor jammed into climate models, one more variable for which the values were no more than guesses.
My unbounded scepticism about global warming, climate change and man’s contribution to either rests on the absence of very much good science on questions like this. (And on the exclusion of China and India from any reduction targets.) The point being that we have had four IPCC reports without any serious model of phytoplankton action. The work at MIT does not determine if phytoplankton are adding or subtracting from the CO2 burden. Rather it is a better model for assessing the interacting effects of climate change and the oceans.
As such, the MIT model reduces the uncertainty of the overall climate change models. The trouble is that while this is a step forward there are still huge holes in those models. Here are two: water vapor and the nature of clouds. Neither is effectively included in the IPCC modeling and both have significant impacts on any attempt to predict the course and consequences of climate change.
Making policy, banning lightbulbs, taxing emissions with a model which is so utterly uncertain is nothing more than pandering to a panicked middle class.
Written by jay on May 17th, 2007 with no comments.
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