A short leash
After I write this James Bow’s beer money is on its way. I was entirely wrong as to my projection of a 50 seat CPC caucus. Crow for dinner for a few days.
That said, this was hardly a triumph. 124 seats is barely enough to govern and certainly not a mandate for significant change. The most encouraging element of the CPC win was that they managed to elect a surprisingly large caucus from Quebec.
What is a bit disturbing is that the Tories were skunked in the City of Vancouver and the City of Toronto. These urban voters were unimpressed with the CPC though the Tory vote overall went up 6.7%.
For Harper to govern he is going to have to develop a series of coalitions on particular issues. In effect Harper is in the same position as the Dumpling was. The main difference being that he does not have the baggage.
The dumpling has never looked better than he did in his rather jaunty concession and resignation speech. He looked like a man who, have been shouldered with a burden far heavier than he could bear, was relieved to be rid of the weight of office. I was watching the election with Kevin Grace and we speculated as to the Liberals trying to stay on; one look at Martin made it very clear he hadn’t the stomach for it.
The big winner of the evening was, of course, the NDP. Ten new seats. The ability to look Buzz in the eye and say drop dead.
From my own political perspective the universe unfolded as it should. The CPC won but did not win big enough to implement much in the way of socon social policy. The Liberals have been sent to the wilderness to cleanse themselves of the arrogance and hubris which accumulated over their years in office.
For the Tories the next year or two will be an opportunity to demonstrate their fitness to govern and their ability to avoid the traps the socon wing may set. The fact the CPC did not win a seat in Vancouver or Toronto will be attributed to many factors but it would be foolish to discount the impact of the SSM farce.
For this mandate the Tories need to govern with their eye firmly on their next, real, mandate. The good news is that the Opposition, while it will certainly give the Tories a chance, will be in a position to yank the chain if the fundys attempt to impose their agenda. Unfortunately, this also means that the Conservatives will have a difficult time implementing such things as the renuciation of Kyoto, the rollover provisions for capital gains taxation, revisions to the Indian Act or support for American and world efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Harper ran a far better campaign than I thought he would. Focused, intelligent, policy driven and, most importantly, disciplined. As importantly, the media - perhaps embarassed by its performance last election, perhaps fed up with the Dumpling - was at least reasonably fair to the Tories.
The other element which I think shiffted was that the scare tactics of the Maude Barlow left were less effective this time round. They still worked to a degree, but the sheer panic at the thought of a Harper government seemed absent. If the CPC works at it, it should be able to entirely marginalize the Barlows of this world. And the place to start is to cut off the funding to the assorted agencies and organizations which support such people.
Harper and the CPC have won a trial run. A chance to prove that they can run the government and propose and pass a relatively cautious legislative program. With luck they will understand that they do not have a majority and should not govern as if they do.
Finally, the CPC needs to recognize that the next campaign has started. Thje same discipline is needed, the same capacity to focus on policy, the same caution on socon issues are the only way that the Tories can ensure that they will be in a position to earn the trust and the mandate of Canadians.
Written by jay on January 24th, 2006 with 30 comments.
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