Halftime

No question about it - the first half of the election campaign has seen the CPC’s announcement a day strategy and the willingness of the media to cut Harper some slack take the CPC rather quickly out of the blocks. The expectations were pretty low for the CPC and they met and beat all of them.

If this was a conventional campaign I would be hedging my 50 CPC seat projection upwards. Assorted Ontario bloggers believe they are seeing “shifts”. The Tiger has been having dinner with people who voted Liberal last time and are voting CPC this time. Greg Staples is seeing “panicked Liberals” and he who must not be linked is seeing movement in Southern and Eastern Ontario.

This is not, however, a normal campaign. We are about to have the week long Christmas/New Years half time show where, blissfully, Harper, Martin, Gomery, smilin’ Jack and all the rest will be entirely forgotten. Like kids coming back from summer vacation, the electorate is likely to forget at least half and maybe more of what has been said and by whom. (Which is what Scott Reid is devoutly hoping Santa is bringing him for Christmas along with a couple of cases of beer and some of Orville’s finest.)

Come the kickoff for the second half it is a pretty good bet that Paul Martin will actually start campaigning and David Herle will push the big red button marked “negative”.

The Liberals have a 10 point national lead going into halftime according to SESDespite Warren Kinsella’s best efforts and pious hopes, they are 7 points ahead in Ontario and, amazingly, 2 points up in the West.

But, most of all, because the CPC was so badly suckered in forcing the election over Christmas, effectively any gains, any momentum, which the CPC built over the first weeks of the campaign is now going to vanish in a haze of turkey, Crown Royal and too much hockey.

At the half I’m pretty sure Harper is dead on course for 50 seats and resignation. And I am equally sure that Martin is not going to win a majority and will resign as well….so there is some Christmas cheer after all.

Update: I have never had much faith in Ipsos-Reid polling but, for what it is worth their current poll has the Libs and the Tories neck and neck with the following regional takes:

The rise in Tory fortunes has been most evident in Ontario, where they are supported by 38 per cent of voters (up from 28 per cent in mid-December). The Liberals have dropped from 47 per cent to 40 per cent in the province.

In B.C., however, the Liberals are gaining — rising from 33 per cent to 40 per cent. They have won most of those intended votes from the Green party (down to five per cent from eight per cent) and from the Tories (down from 33 per cent to 30 per cent.)
ottawa citizen

Interestingly, Ipsos tracks the Liberals as only 2 points ahead in Ontario - so the SES Ipsos comparison is, in fact, within the margin of error. Prepare the chicken cannon Corporal Herle….usual load, three parts slime, two hidden agenda and a dash of scary.

No one has ever gone far wrong underestimating the gullibility of Toronto Star readers.

Written by jay on December 24th, 2005 with 4 comments.
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