Herling

Andrew, over at Bound by Gravity, takes a run at David Herle, Martin’s chief strategist. I commented:

Herle may be insufferable but he knows what he is doing. He left Harper looking dazed and confused when he went negative early in the last election. (And, with respect Andrew, Martin never had a significant chance at a large majority government last time out - Herle saved him from defeat and eliminated Harper’s chance of ever becoming PM.)

Plus Herle’s intelligence was all over the appeal to the nation which saved Martin’s government at the height of the Adscam scandal. Again, it left the CPC looking like dolts and Harper simply did not have the stones to take down the government.

This time out all Martin has to do is hang on and he will still pick up seats. Changing the communications guard - and I gather that one of the people considered by many insiders to be a huge problem remains in place - is not going to alter the fact that Adscam is fast fading as an issue, SSM isn’t an issue and tax cuts are going to be pre-empted by Ralph Goodale discovering his 10 billion dollar surplus and handing out several billion of it to targetted Liberal leaning groups.

The Grits will hammer Harper and the CPC as a party which is committed to taking rights away from Canadians - something which will resonate in the large immigrant communities in parts of the West. Herle will go negative early with lots of pics of Harper pointing his finger and generally edited to make the poor man look like a chipmunk on speed.

The truth about Herle is that he managed to elect and keep in office a man as unlikely as Paul Martin - so don’t underestimate him. If the CPC had even one operative as good as Herle it might have a chance this time out. But it doesn’t.

The tactical problem the CPC has is that it cannot decide whether it is an Opposition party in which case it would oppose and attempt to defeat the government or “a government in waiting” in which case it will try to look as if electing it will mean very little scary change. Herle will use this vacilation to eat the Tory’s lunch.

Strategically, the CPC’s problems are much deeper. At the moment they lack the ability to ditch the socons whose agenda is all they have by way of a philosophical base. I suspect they lack this ability because they cannot punch their way through to a small government, individual rights, position. And they lack this ability because they are convinced that this would be too shocking to the fragile psyche of those much sought after Ontario voters.

When it comes to the next election it is time for the CPC to recognize that, baring a miracle, they are going to lose. Or, more precisely, they are going to fail to win. The good news here is that even with Herle, the Liberals are going to fail to win as well. So, instead of trying to play a defensive game, the CPC should be going flat out to outline a real vision of Canada with a minimal federal government and a greatly expanded scope for individual rights. That would lay down the markers for the real election in about five years.

To take a concrete example: at the moment the CBC has locked out its workers. If the CPC really wanted to win in five years it would be putting together a strategy which would see the CBC taken from the 1.5 billion dollar a year beast it is currently to a 150 million dollar a year, lean, bright organization which had a narrow, achievable mandate and a lot of freelancers.

To take another concrete example: at the moment America is ignoring NAFTA rulings on softwood and trying to extradite Marc Emery. The Tories should be pounding the Canadian soverignty questions both files bring up. On softwood they should be right out front with a countervail on energy - hydro, gas, oil (which would mean BC, Alberta, Sask, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland would all be contributing). On Emery, the CPC should flat out say that the decision to prosecute a Canadian citizen for activities carried on in Canada is a purely Canadian one. They should be seeking status in the extradition proceedings and they should make it abundantly clear that if they are elected the proceedings will stop immediately.

Harper is never going to be PM - or at least not without a decade’s seasoning outside the leader’s office. If the CPC recognizes that it can get on with the job of crafting and presenting a non-Liberal vision of Canada. One which the next leader of the CPC can run and win on.

Update: Over at Andrew’s blog, apotheostomy comments, “Herle got a stammering, vacuous pudding of a man elected as Prime Minister of Canada. Not too shabby. Never underestimate the amoral.” Perfect.

Written by jay on August 25th, 2005 with 8 comments.
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