Via Daveberta: It appears that Blankout Times has ceased publication and been grabbed by a vile Blogger spammer. While I think the whole Blogger “flag this blog as objectionable” idea is going to be trouble, and have my own rather deep issues with Blogger, I suspect Pooh would be a very grateful bear if you took a moment and flagged this content as objectionable. The flag is up on the Blogger tool bar. The blog is here.
Written by jay on August 22nd, 2005 with 4 comments.
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The Sunday Magazine in the New York Times has climbed aboard the “peak oil” donkey cart. And been whacked right off by Steven Levitt the Freakonimist.
The onset of triple-digit prices might seem a blessing for the Saudis — they would receive greater amounts of money for their increasingly scarce oil. But one popular misunderstanding about the Saudis — and about OPEC in general — is that high prices, no matter how high, are to their benefit.
Although oil costing more than $60 a barrel hasn’t caused a global recession, that could still happen: it can take a while for high prices to have their ruinous impact. And the higher above $60 that prices rise, the more likely a recession will become. High oil prices are inflationary; they raise the cost of virtually everything — from gasoline to jet fuel to plastics and fertilizers — and that means people buy less and travel less, which means a drop-off in economic activity. So after a brief windfall for producers, oil prices would slide as recession sets in and once-voracious economies slow down, using less oil. Prices have collapsed before, and not so long ago: in 1998, oil fell to $10 a barrel after an untimely increase in OPEC production and a reduction in demand from Asia, which was suffering through a financial crash.
Oops, there goes the whole peak oil argument. When the price rises, demand falls, and oil prices slide. What happened to the “end of the world as we know it?” Now we are back to $10 a barrel oil. Without realizing it, the author just invoked basic economics to invalidate the entire premise of the article!
freakonomics
I happen to think that higher oil prices are a good thing simply because they will tend to reduce the viability of suburbs which, and here is my only point of agreement with James Kunstler, I believe are an abomination. However, as I have written before, they are also self correcting.
Sustained per barrel oil prices of over $60.00 - which I agree with Levitt are not likely in the medium term - will have the effect of providing huge incentives to consumers to demand smaller, more efficient cars and to use those cars less. They will also provide incentives for a whole range of “bright, green” technology. Which you can read about at World Changing.
There is no question at all that it is in the West’s interests to cease its dependency on cheap oil from the Middle East. And there is little doubt that to kick the chep oil habit, a price shock is a very useful thing. In a perfect world oil prices will go over $60.00 and stay there long enough for a whole string of energy technologies to come online. At which point the price can crater and the Saudis and their ilk can return to camels, goats and Allah. They will not be missed.
Written by jay on August 22nd, 2005 with 7 comments.
Read more articles on Canadian Politics and Terror and tech.
These are pictures of the raid on Marc Emery’s seed operation in Vancouver. So here’s the question: are those Vancouver undercover cops trying to protect their identies (ugly, but fairly standard operating proceedure) or are they DEA guys operating in Canada??
It is impossible to tell; but a CPC on the ball and the NDP for sure should be asking the Minister of Justice who these masked men were and they should demand proof that these were not DEA agents operating in Canada.
Written by jay on August 22nd, 2005 with 3 comments.
Read more articles on Canada US Relations and Canadian Politics and Pot.